Market Commentary – Q3 2024
Resilience and Sustainability Overview Following a 26% rise in 2023, the S&P 500 advanced by 22% in the nine months ended September 30, 2024. By third quarter end, the S&P 500 had reached another all-time high, exceeding the January 2022 peak by 20% and the march 2020 COVID low by a resounding 158% (see Figure […]
Market Commentary – Q1 2024
Don’t React… Anticipate! Overview Following a 24.3% rise in 2023, the S&P 500 advanced 10.6% in the first quarter. By quarter end, the S&P 500 had reached an all-time high, exceeding the January 2022 peak by 10% and the March 2020 COVID low by 135% (see Figure 1). Equity market performance remained highly concentrated in […]
Market Commentary – Q4 2023
Quo VADIS – Where are you going? By Theresa Gusman Overview The S&P 500 advanced 11.7% in the fourth quarter, cementing a 24.3% rise in 2023. Through most of last year, the S&P 500’s narrow leadership camouflaged the paltry returns of the broader index and punished investors underweight the Artificial Intelligence (AI)-fueled stocks known as […]
Market Commentary – Q2 2023
The “Other 493” Play Catch Up By Theresa Gusman Overview The S&P 500 increased 8.7% in the second quarter, boosting the first half rise to 16.9% (see Figure 1). 70% of the performance of the S&P 500, more than 95% of the performance of the more concentrated MSCI USA, and 70% of the performance of […]
Market Commentary – Q1 2023
View the Full PDF Here Corporate profits to decline: Priced in or “the other shoe”? By Theresa Gusman Overview Inflation’s surge to a 40-year high in 2022 let the Fed to an unprecedented series of interest-rate increases, cratering the bond market and sending stocks tumbling. Following a 24.9% decline in the first three quarters 0f […]
Market Commentary – January 2023
Click Here to View Full PDF Corporate profits to decline: Priced in or “the other shoe”? Overview Inflation’s surge to a 40-year high in 2022 led the Fed to an unprecedented series of interest-rate increases, cratering the bond market and sending stocks tumbling. Following a 24.9% decline in the first three quarters 0f 2022, the […]
Market Commentary – November 2022
Click Here to View Full PDF Recession looms – But “it’s always darkest before the dawn”1 Overview After recording their worst first half in more than 50 years, US stocks fell 4.8% in the third quarter bringing the full year decline to 24.9% (see Figure 1, below) before an October rally pushed the S&P 500 […]
Market Commentary – July 2022
Click Here to View Full PDF What’ll it be? Soft Landing, Stagnation, Hard Landing, or Stagflation “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but it often Rhymes.” – Mark Twain Overview Stocks recorded their worst first half in more than 50 years, with the S&P 500 plunging 20.6% (see Figure 1, below). However equity valuations have become more […]
Market Commentary – April 2022
Click Here to View Full PDF Nowhere to Hide “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked.” Warren Buffet Overview Remember when…The S&P 500 advanced 27% in 2021, at year end the US 10-year Treasury yield was 1.5% and regular gasoline cost $3.28/gallon, and the COVID pandemic was […]
