Nowhere to Hide
“It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked.”
Warren Buffet
Overview
Remember when…The S&P 500 advanced 27% in 2021, at year end the US 10-year Treasury yield was 1.5% and regular gasoline cost $3.28/gallon, and the COVID pandemic was our primary concern. In the first quarter, the S&P 500 fell 4.6%, the 10-year advanced to 2.3%, gasoline prices surged 29.0% to $4.23, and our concerns now include Russia’s war in Ukraine, 8.5% consumer price inflation, rapidly rising interest rates, and prospects for a slowing economy. Oh, and a new COVID variant has emerged.
Figure 1. S&P 500 at Inflection Points – Bull and Bear Markets, 1996 to Date
